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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE MAIN FEATURES ARE A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
992 MB AND THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT THE RECON REPORTED AN
ELONGATED EYEWALL OPEN TO THE WEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS AND I AM BEING GENEROUS.  BECAUSE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WITH THE HURRICANE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED.
 
JOSE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A JOG MORE TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
PAST HOUR OR SO...PERHAPS IT IS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG 500 MB HIGH TO THE NORTH...JOSE SHOULD TURN
BACK TO A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST.  NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE NORTH
BEFORE 36 OR 48 HOURS AND ALL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY BRING JOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT WOULD BE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR JOSE TO TURN INMEDIATELY NORTHWARD...AND A
SURPRISE TO ALL.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 15.1N  59.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N  61.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.2N  63.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N  65.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.3N  66.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  69.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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