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HURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
 
THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA RELAYED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE HAS BEEN MOVING ON
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...315/11..OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER IT MAY BE
TEMPORARY...SINCE MID-TROPOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS GATHERED BY THE NOAA
JET IMPLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS RIDGE COULD FORCE THE MOVEMENT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.  OUR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS MUCH TO THE RIGHT AS
IMPLIED BY THE CURRENT MOTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE U.K. MET
OFFICE MODEL PREDICTION...AND THE MOST RECENT NAVY VERSION OF THE
GFDL MODEL ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK.
 
AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS OF 91 KNOTS
AND THIS IMPLIES MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KNOTS.  CENTRAL
PRESSURE...MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WAS DOWN TO 986 MB.  THE RECON
ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS FAIRLY WELL EMBEDDED INTO
A CDO OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  JOSE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL-
ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
OCCUR.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 15.9N  60.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N  61.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N  63.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N  65.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.3N  67.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 23.5N  69.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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