HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 21 1999

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING IN WV IMAGES SINCE YESTERDAY...HAVE PARTIALLY REMOVED THE
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOSE.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
RECON.  JOSE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. 
MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN IN THIS REGION AS THEY INTERACT WITH
THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH NORMALLY IS LOCATED IN THIS
AREA. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
JOSE.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN
ONCE IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

BECAUSE JOSE HAS BEEN SHEARED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE
LARGE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 18.6N  65.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.2N  66.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.6N  67.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  67.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 41.0N  57.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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