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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING FROM THE U.S. TO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE 12Z UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ACCELERATES THE
FORWARD MOTION TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE THE AVIATION
MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UKMET MODEL
AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL MODEL.
 
THE RECON SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 993 MB AT 1730Z AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO RECON IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
VERY DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT QUADRANT.  GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING AGAIN AND THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO
65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY
72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MOVES OVER
COLD WATER.
 
THE LATEST SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ARE ALL LESS THAT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND THE
WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 19.2N  65.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.2N  66.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 22.7N  67.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  66.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  65.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  55.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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