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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
OVERNIGHT INDICATE THAT JOSE IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE NORTH. 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 330/7.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JOSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL MOTION.  THE FORECAST ACCELERATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD IS NOT AS LARGE AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET.
 
JOSE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THE RECON FIXES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST INSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE ABOUT 55 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  I
AM HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF
THE STORM...EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUGGEST A
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS JOSE TO 61 KT IN 36 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS AND/OR MERGES
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA
LATER TODAY.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 20.3N  66.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.3N  66.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 23.7N  66.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 28.0N  65.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 34.0N  61.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 49.0N  50.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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