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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/10 BASED ON A RECENT AIR FORCE RECON FIX.
THE REASONING FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A MAJOR
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AND EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWARD IN 72 HOURS.  THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ACCELERATES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 40 OR SO
KNOTS AFTER 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS (FROM 22/1200Z).
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER
BUT THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED ONLY 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB.  THE FORECAST IS FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING IN 24 HOURS AND JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN 48
HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH JOSE IS FORECAST TO PASS 150 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE STORMS PROGRESS.
 
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 22.7N  65.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 24.6N  64.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 28.0N  63.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 34.3N  61.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 42.0N  56.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
 
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