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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED
ON A MORE WESTERLY HEADING AND HAS SLOWED DOWN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06 KNOTS.  THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH MOST SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM INLAND.  THE UKMET...WHICH HAS PERFORMED THE
BEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKES KATRINA NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
...LIFTING OUT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT AND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY 
DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.

THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE TOPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR PER IR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED 
TO 25 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES ITS TRAVERSE
OVER LAND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WOULD SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
THIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE CENTER WOULD MOVE INLAND 
OVER THE YUCATAN.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. AGAIN...
ALL OF THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM SURVIVING ITS TREK ACROSS 
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. 
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...FOR NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ARE SPREADING INTO GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 14.3N  85.0W    25 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 14.8N  85.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N  86.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N  88.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  88.0W    30 KTS
  
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