HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999
 
INFRARED IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA MEXICO SHOW
THAT THE CENTER IS STILL SOUTH OF MERIDA.  LATEST INTIAL MOTION IS
020/6.  SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE SYSTEM MAY
BE SLOWING TO BEGIN ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ETA...AVN...AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS OPPORTUNITY TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND WILL BE FORCED MORE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 20 KT.  KATRINA WILL BE MOVING
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN AT THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE..THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEAR WILL DISSIPATE KATRINA
AND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS
FORECAST WOULD ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 20.6N  89.6W    20 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 21.4N  89.3W    20 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  87.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 23.4N  84.9W    DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN