HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN NOV 14 1999
 
WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT
CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVERNIGHT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TREND HAS
BEEN THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST TOPS...TO -80C...REMAIN NORTH.  HOWEVER...
TWO SHIP OBSERVATIONS..PCBZ AND ELUR3...NEAR THE CENTER SHOW WINDS
OF 12 AND 13 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES 
THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HOURS.
 
WHILE SATELLITE FIXES STILL SHOW SOME SCATTER...NOT UNUSUAL FOR
WEAK SYSTEMS USING IR IMAGERY...THE TWO SHIP OBSERVATIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE HELP PINPOINT THE CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 095/08 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST AS A STRONG U.S. MID-
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE/LOW...ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT
THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE MODEL.
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG
WITH ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DECREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THEREBY ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.9N  79.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.9N  78.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.2N  76.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  74.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N  72.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  68.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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