HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 14 1999
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BE OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 100/07 AND THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MOSTLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION DEEPENS AND EXTENDS THE WESTERLIES FURTHER SOUTHWARD.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN NO SHIP OR ISLAND REPORTS TO CONFIRM THIS.  AN AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON AND I WILL DELAY UPGRADING
THE DEPRESSION UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.  MEANWHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 15.9N  79.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N  78.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N  76.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N  74.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  71.2W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N  66.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN