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HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 19 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LENNY
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY AND THE EYE IS MEANDERING BETWEEN ST.
MAARTEN AND ANGUILLA.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS ARE
STILL WEAK.  HOWEVER...A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COULD FINALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO STEER LENNY AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY SLOW SO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE IN THE
AREA FOR AT LEAST 12 MORE HOURS.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR TUNE
AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A FASTER NORTHEAST TRACK
THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  ENOUGH HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID ABOUT
MODEL OUTPUT.  

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEAKENING AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT ALL THE
FACTORS ARE AGAINST STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL
INDICATE THAT LENNY COULD REINTENSIFY SOME.  TIME WILL TELL. 

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 18.0N  62.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  62.3W    75 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  61.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N  59.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N  57.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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