HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 20 1999
 
FRENCH BUOY...41100...REPORTED 30-KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB WHILE THE ISLANDS ARE REPORTING NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY WINDS.  THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER MUST THEN BE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BUOY AND DOMINICA.  SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION AND
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE DIFFUSE CENTER OF CAPRICIOUS LENNY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS...AGAINST ALL MODELS...WHICH IN
FACT ARE STILL INSISTING ON TAKING LENNY NORTHEASTWARD.   IN THIS
PARTICULAR CASE...MODELS ARE PRACTICALLY USELESS...AND THE SITUATION
IS SIMILAR TO MITCH IN 1998 WHEN ALL MODELS TOOK MITCH NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD BUT THE HURRICANE MOVED SOUTH.  FORTUNATELY...LENNY IS
A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND OBVIOUSLY
CONTAMINATED BY TRACK MODELS BEYOND 36 HOURS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 15.6N  59.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N  58.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N  56.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N  54.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N  51.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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