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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED TONIGHT WITH SAB AND TAFB POSITION
ESTIMATES BEING ABOUT 50 NMI APART.  USING THE TAFB POSITION GIVES
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 WHILE THE SAB POSITION GIVES 290/15.
THE TAFB POSITION AND 290/11 IS THE OFFICIAL CHOICE ALTHOUGH THIS IS
ARBITRARY.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOGUS LOW
JUST WEST OF THE STORM.  THIS APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE GFDL MODEL
TO MOVE THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD WHILE ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE THE AVIATION MODEL
SHOWS A RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...THE GFDL
SOLUTION IS REJECTED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS
KEEPS THE TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 3.5 FROM
SAB...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND WHAT WAS A LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS FRAGMENTED INTO
A RATHER CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  HOWEVER A SMALL CDO FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE GROWING AGAIN DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.  THEREFORE
THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO ONLY 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS ADRIAN APPROACHES COOLER WATER.
 
SOME OUTER BANDS ARE PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND PRESUMABLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND THIS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 14.7N 102.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.3N 103.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 105.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 106.9W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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