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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999

...CORRECTION INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT.
 
SAB AND TAFB POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER THEN PREVIOUS AND FIT WELL
WITH EXTRAPOLATED AIR FORCE GLOBAL POSITIONS.  INITIAL MOTION IS
290/12.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A BOGUS LOW JUST WEST OF THE
STORM AS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  THIS AGAIN CAUSES THE GFDL MODEL TO
MOVE THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD WHILE ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION.  THE AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS KEEPS THE TRACK OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 3.5 FROM
SAB...THE LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS RETURNED WITH COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED
THEN EARLIER.  THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. 
THE FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT WEAKENING AS ADRIAN APPROACHES COOLER WATER.
 
SOME OUTER BANDS ARE PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 15.3N 103.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 105.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N 107.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 110.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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