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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS RUN...EXCEPT THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON ITS NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SLIGHT
DECELERATION.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL.

DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS A SHIP FNCM LOCATED 35 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER AT 18Z AND MOVING SOUTHWARD.  IT REPORTED ONLY 27 KNOTS AND 9
FT SEAS.  IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHIP IS TRYING TO PENETRATE THE CENTER
OF THE STORM.  THIS SHIP IS A REASON FOR KEEPING ADRIAN JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH 60 KNOTS FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE
FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 80 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING WHEN COLD SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.

THE WIND AND SEAS RADII IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ARE REDUCED BASED
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHIP REPORT.

THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
BUT SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 16.4N 106.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.1N 108.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 112.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.4N 117.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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