HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999
 
ADRIAN CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
T4.5 WHILE SAB REMAINS AT T4.0.  THEREFORE...THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS.  SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN WILL REACH ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE EFFECTS OF COOLER
SSTS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13 AND THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-AND
UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH BAMS AND BAMM RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO
THE WEST AND LBAR RAPIDLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. REMAINING
MODELS CONTINUE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT VARYING SPEEDS.  GFDL MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST BUT SLOWS TO A SNAILS PACE IN 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME PERIODS.  IT APPEARS GFDL IS STILL FEELING EFFECTS OF
BOGUS LOW IN THE INITIAL ANALYSIS.  HOW GOES IT ANALYSES OF THE
TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTS A LEFT BIAS IN MANY
OF THE MODELS. LBAR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BETTER THAN MOST. 
THUS...OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO LBAR TRACK BUT DOES
NOT INCLUDE LBARS SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 17.7N 108.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.6N 110.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N 113.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 117.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 120.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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