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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS A
BREAK BETWEEN 120-125 DEGREES WEST AND THE FORCAST IS FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE INITIAL HEADING WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  IT IS GETTING A LITTLE REPETITIVE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO TO MISPLACE THE CENTER ON ITS
INITIALIZATION.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE
OKAY.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBERS ARE 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC AND
THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD END
SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 17.9N 109.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.6N 111.1W    80 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 116.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W    30 KTS
 
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