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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
 
ADRIAN IS ON THE DOWNHILL TRACK FOR INTENSITY.  CI NUMBERS ARE
GREATER THAN T-NUMBERS AT TAFB...SAB AND GLOBAL.  CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. ALL INTENSITY FORECAST SCHEMES DECREASE
INTENSITY OUT TO 72 HOURS.  FORECAST CALLS FOR ADRIAN TO BE A
DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATERS...NEAR 21-22C.
 
ADRIAN ALSO HAS BEEN DECELERATING OVER THE PAST 24-HOURS AT ABOUT
ONE KT/6HOURS.  SEVERAL TRACK MODELS...NOTABLY..UKMET AND
NOGAPS...MOVING IN APPROXIMATELY THIS SAME DIRECTION ARE ALSO
DECELERATING THE STORM.  THUS...INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08 KNOTS...
AND FUTURE FORECAST POSITIONS TAKE THIS DECELERATION INTO ACCOUNT. 
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
UNFORTUNATELY...NO MORE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOCORRO
ISLAND...18.7N/110.9W...SINCE 21/00Z.  THE ANTENNA AND/OR
TRANSMITTER MAY HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY ADRIANS WINDS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 18.4N 111.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.7N 113.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 114.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N 115.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W    35 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 119.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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