HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
 
ADRIAN IS SHEARING OFF...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE 12Z
INFRARED FIXES INDICATING THE CENTER WAS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FIX POSITIONS...THUS REQUIRING A RE-LOCATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/04. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATING A DEEP LAYER WEAKNESS IN THIS AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOWLY-
MOVING ADRIAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE LBAR AND BAMD TURN ADRIAN NORTH WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF
26N...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
SHEARED AND IS BEING STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.
 
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND
SHIFOR...WITH ADRIAN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND
TO A DEPRESSION IN 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...
ADRIAN COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
BEVEN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 18.5N 111.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 114.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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