HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
 
ADRIAN IS NOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE CI 3.5...3.0...AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS.  FURTHER
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASINGLY COLD SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.
 
MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN 270/6...AS ADRIAN APPEARS TO
BE NOW FOLLOWING A SHALLOW-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODESTLY REDUCED BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT
WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS.

FRANKLIN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 18.7N 112.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.8N 113.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.9N 114.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 
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