HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND SO IT IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ.  BEATRIZ IS SHOWING DECENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SHOWS
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEING ATTAINED WITHIN 36 H.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  BY 72
HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/09 KNOTS.  MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY TRACK...BUT WITH
GREATLY VARYING SPEEDS.  THE AVN INITIALIZES THE VORTEX A BIT TOO
FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING TOO MUCH EASTERLY
FLOW FOR THE BAM MODELS.  THE GFDL SHOWS A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT
THIS MODEL TYPICALLY HAS TROUBLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN THE BAM.  

FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 13.3N 104.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 13.5N 105.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.9N 107.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N 109.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 14.5N 111.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN