HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999

BEATRIZ SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...
ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
NOT THAT COLD AND NOT THAT CONCENTRATED. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45 KT.

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BEATRIZ IS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN EARLIER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/14. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH LARGE SCALE
MODELS INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
BEATRIZ IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BEATRIZ TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
24 HOURS AND PEAK IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
26C ISOTHERM.

 
BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 13.9N 107.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.3N 109.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.1N 115.3W    70 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 118.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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