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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROVIDING THE STEERING. THERE IS A WEAKNESS AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AT 3.0 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BACKS OFF ABOUT 5 KNOTS IN ITS FORECAST AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS BASED ON THE INTENSITY TREND HAVING LEVELED OFF OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LOOKS SYMMETRIC WITH AMPLE CONVECTION AND BANDING SUCH THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL FOR INTENSIFICATION. US NAVY FNMOC SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN REDUCED. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.6N 109.5W 45 KTS 12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.0N 111.2W 50 KTS 24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 113.5W 60 KTS 36HR VT 12/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W 65 KTS 48HR VT 12/1200Z 16.0N 117.2W 65 KTS 72HR VT 13/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W 65 KTS NNNN