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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
THE STORM EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES FOR 72 HOURS AND ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
TAFB INTENSITY NUMBER INCREASED TO 3.5 WHILE SAB AND KGWC REMAINED
AT 3.0.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
  
LATEST U.S. NAVY FNMOC SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A 41 KNOT WIND SPEED
SOME 150 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 33 KNOTS ABOUT 80 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 14.6N 110.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N 112.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N 115.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.8N 117.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 119.6W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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