HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BEATRIZ
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS
RATHER RAGGED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED OVER THE
NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE...BUT OTHERWISE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE WELL
ORGANIZED.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ADEQUATE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS BEATRIZ BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...MORE STABLE AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE STORM CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 12 KNOTS AND THE LATEST NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 25N 132W...COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING SWIFTLY WESTWARD...
STAYING WELL AHEAD OF BEATRIZ.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 14.5N 113.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.7N 115.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 117.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 126.5W    65 KTS
 
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