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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999
 
AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND COLD CDO IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 75 KNOTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK ESTIMATES.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES OVER 25 DEGREE SSTS IN 72
HOURS...NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FORECAST MUCH WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS INFLUENCED BY
THIS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 14.0N 116.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 117.9W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 120.4W    80 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W    80 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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