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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999
 
THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT WITH SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS OF -65 TO -70C WRAPPING THREE
QUARTERS THE WAY AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB...SAB ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT...RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL...
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS WITH
IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FORECAST THROUGH
24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS BEATRIZ
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...NEAR 25C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE NORTH OF BEATRIZ SHOULD STEER BEATRIZ ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND DECELERATION BEYOND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND CLIPER ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND BAMD REMAIN THE RIGHT-MOST OF
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 14.1N 116.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 118.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 121.1W    95 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W    90 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W    75 KTS
 
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