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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999 THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE SEEN BEFORE THE LAST ADVISORY ON BEATRIZ WERE APPARENTLY A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 21 NM WIDE EYE. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5...SO BEATRIZ IS NOW A 100 KT MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE THE OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE WINDS INCREASED BY 5-10 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SOUTH OF THE RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 12Z GFDL RUN IS CALLING FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE 06Z RUN...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION REMAINS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE OFFICAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEVEN/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.3N 119.8W 100 KTS 12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 121.3W 100 KTS 24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.8N 123.5W 100 KTS 36HR VT 14/0600Z 15.3N 125.5W 95 KTS 48HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 127.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W 75 KTS NNNN