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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999

BEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE. HOWEVER...THE TOPS ARE WARMING AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST WEAKENING IS BEGINNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE AVIATION MODEL IS STILL DEVELOPING A DUBIOUS LOOKING BROAD
VORTEX THAT ENVELOPES BOTH BEATRIZ AND THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST. THIS MAKES THE AVN AND THE BAM MODEL TRACK SUSPECT.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...WITH SOME SLOWING AFTER 36 HOURS AS A TROUGH NEAR THE U.S.
WEST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THIS IS AGAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE LBAR AND UKMET...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
CALLS FOR BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS.
 
BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 15.5N 123.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 124.8W    95 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W    85 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.3N 128.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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