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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999 BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 5.5...WITH LOWER DATA T NUMBERS...BUT THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE COME UP A BIT THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. BEATRIZ HAS TURNED A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10. HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ROUGHLY WITH THE SURROUNDING MID- LEVEL FLOW...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE OUTFLOW OF THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE NORTHWARD TREND IS TEMPORARY...WITH A RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BEATRIZ. AS THE HURRICANE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...STEERING WILL PRESUMABLY BE DETERMINED BY A SHALLOWER LAYER FLOW. THIS REASONING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OUT TO 36 HOURS...AND TO THE LEFT AND FASTER BEYOND THAT. FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 16.3N 124.5W 100 KTS 12HR VT 14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W 90 KTS 24HR VT 15/0000Z 17.7N 127.8W 80 KTS 36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.2N 129.8W 70 KTS 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 135.0W 40 KTS NNNN