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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999

THE EYE OF BEATRIZ IS BECOMING RAGGED AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING.  AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...IT
APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
06Z RANGED FROM 5.0 TO 5.5...I.E. 90 TO 102 KNOTS.  CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BY WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT BEATRIZ WILL BE OVER 23
DEG C WATERS.

MOTION CONTINUES 295/10.  THE SLIGHT RIGHTWARD TURN OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BEATRIZ...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL AND HINTED AT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...HENCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED LATER IN THE
PERIOD. 
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 16.6N 125.4W    95 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 126.8W    85 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 128.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.3N 130.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.7N 132.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 135.5W    35 KTS
 
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