HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999

BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
REMAINS AT 95 KT. BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN A FASTER WEAKENING IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
OVER 22C-23C WATER BY 72 HOURS...AND IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM OR POSSIBLY A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. THE AVIATION MODEL IS STILL HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH BEATRIZ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...AND ONE OR TWO
OTHER SPURIOUS-LOOKING VORTICES IT PRODUCES. THIS CAUSES IT AND THE
BAM MODELS TO TURN BEATRIZ SOUTH OF WEST. A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY
AS BEATRIZ WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT...BUT NOT
AS SHARP AS THE TURN INDICATED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 17.2N 126.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 127.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 129.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 131.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 133.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 136.0W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN