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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999 BEATRIZ IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES 305/9. CURRENT INTESNITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 90 KT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO THAT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST INTO COLDER WATER...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEATRIZ WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS OVER 22C-23C SSTS. BEVEN/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.7N 126.9W 90 KTS 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 128.0W 80 KTS 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 129.8W 70 KTS 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 131.4W 60 KTS 48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W 30 KTS NNNN