HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999
 
...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION...

BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AT 305/9.  CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0 AND 4.5...RESPECTIVEY...AND SO
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 85 KT.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
INTO COLDER WATER...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEATRIZ WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS OVER
22C-23C SSTS.
 
FRANKLIN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 18.2N 127.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 128.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 130.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.7N 132.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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