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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999

BEATRIZ IS NOW WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 77...77...AND 65
KT RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION...THE
INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY...WITH BEATRIZ EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT
WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE BAMS...WHICH INDICATES A 
NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AT 72 HOURS. 

THE FORECAST WEAKENING RATE HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRENDS. BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER 22C-23C SSTS BY
72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEN.

THE INITIAL 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON
REPORTS FROM THE SHIPS P3GB4 AND 3FJI3.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 19.2N 129.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.8N 130.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N 132.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N 134.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 136.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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