HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD SWIRL IS DECOUPLING FROM A MORE CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER RACING OFF AHEAD OF THE FORMER.  IF
THIS IS INDEED THE CASE...THEN BEATRIZ IS IN EXTREMELY RAPID
DECLINE.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  GIVEN ITS APPARENT DECAPITATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF BEATRIZ IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  FOLLOWING THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CENTER GIVES 290/7...WHICH GIVES GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHLTY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AT 48
HOURS...BUT MAY OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

FRANKLIN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 19.2N 130.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 131.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.9N 133.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 134.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
NNNN