HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EVEN WITH
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 120 NM FROM
THOSE OF AFWA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE TAFB FIX AND A
REPORT FROM SHIP VRUM4...WHICH CALL FOR SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE
CENTER AND AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 270/16. THE SYSTEM COULD
BE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...BUT THE POSITION UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT
UNWISE TO CHANGE THE MOTION THAT MUCH IN THIS PACKAGE.

NHC HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW...THIS
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SPURIOUS LOOKING VORTEX THE
AVIATION DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THREE-E. THE OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE LBAR. SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR
AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.

A FORECAST OF STRENGTHENING HAS ITS PROS AND CONS. ON THE CON
SIDE...THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY VERY DISORGANIZED. ALSO...THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN EARLIER NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
WEAKENED...ALLOWING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ON THE PRO SIDE... THE
AVIATION AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER
WARMER WATER FOR A LONGER TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N 111.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.4N 113.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 116.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 119.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 122.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W    40 KTS
 
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