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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999

THE DEPRESSION...OR WHAT REMAINS OF IT...IS VERY DISORGANIZED WITH
INSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT AN INTENSITY MEASUREMENT
VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SHIP VRUM4
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KNOTS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE..FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...IS 270/14.  THE TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION...AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 16.4N 114.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 116.4W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 119.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 124.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 128.0W    25 KTS
 
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