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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999
 
EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 
SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T1.5...25 KT FROM AFWA
TO 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 H
AND TO 48 KT IN 48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
COMPETING FLOW AROUND THE ITCZ...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS
AND SHIFOR.
 
WITH AN ELONGATED CENTER THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 275/14.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTERLY
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 13.7N 135.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.9N 137.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 140.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.6N 143.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 153.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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