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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 1999

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  IN FACT...IT IS LESS DEFINED THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IT
SEEMS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LARGE SCALE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY AND IS NOW WEAKENING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE EITHER STEADY
OR DECREASING INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION IN 6 HOURS AND SHIPS MODEL MAKES
IT A TROPICAL STORM SOON.  ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TREND IS WEAKENING
...I AM NOT ABOUT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES USING IR IMAGES TO
THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM
STATUS.   

I DO NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS WEAK SYSTEM
EXCEPT THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NWS HONOLULU AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY. 

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 14.2N 138.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 140.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N 143.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N 155.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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