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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 1999 THE AREAL EXTEND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS DIMISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT POORLY DEFINED...IS NOW EXPOSED WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION SEEN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE DEPRESSION COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS SUGGESTED BY CIMSS ANALYSES...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATING AT 72 HOURS ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 275/16 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM. WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAVING CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE... FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.2N 140.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.4N 142.7W 30 KTS 24HR VT 25/1200Z 14.6N 145.7W 30 KTS 36HR VT 26/0000Z 14.9N 149.0W 30 KTS 48HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 152.4W 30 KTS 72HR VT 27/1200Z 15.5N 158.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN