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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999

THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE LESS-ORGANIZED LOOKING THAN BEFORE. 
LOW-CLOUD LINES DEFINING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ARE NOT AS
DISTINCT AS THEY WERE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EVIDENT...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF A PERSISTENT MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THE
LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ALLOWED
FOR...AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND JUST A SMIDGEON TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. 
DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO A
500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL NEAR 130W.
HOWEVER IT IS THOUGHT THAT THIS WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND
MORE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER TRADEWIND FLOW...AND CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 15.7N 117.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.4N 119.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 121.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 125.3W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W    30 KTS
 
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