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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOWING A CONTINUED MOSTLY
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED.  THE SLOWING DOWN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR 130
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AS SEEN ON THE AVIATION MODEL.  SO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
SHIFTED A TAD TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE INITIAL DIRECTION OF MOTION.

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE RAGGED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT THERE IS NO BANDING.  THE
INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS COOLER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 16.3N 118.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.9N 120.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 122.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 129.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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