HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 26 1999

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
PACIFIC N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THIS HAS PRODUCED STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER CALVIN...WITH MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATING THE CENTER IS NOW OVER 100 NM FROM THE FORMER CENTRAL...
NOW WEAKENING...CONVECTION. IF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...CALVIN WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. WITH THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTING CONTINUED SHEAR...
AND CALVIN MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR
THE FORECAST TRACK. CALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 17.4N 121.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.2N 122.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N 125.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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