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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 26 1999

CALVIN CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL FLARE-
UPS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT
RESPECTIVELY. CALVIN IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS
ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND COLDER SSTS SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THAN EARLIER...AS
CALVIN MAY INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
FORTUNATELY...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE
INTERACTION IS TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...SUCH AS IT IS...IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS JUST
AS IMPRESSIVE AS...IF NOT MORE THAN...CALVIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 25 KT OR LESS
AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CALVIN ONCE
HAD. THUS...IT IS NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 124.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.8N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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