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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999
 
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD SWIRL OF THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT.  INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 315/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS A
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE CONVECTIVE BURST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HAS ENDED AND THERE IS NO
LONGER ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  GIVEN THE SSTS...NO FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT OUTBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.  DISSIPATION SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN
12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 18.8N 122.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.6N 123.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.9N 124.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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