HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS GONE THROUGH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW DIMINISHING.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE
PUSHING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST...TD SIX IS NOT FAR
FROM THE COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER SHEARS THAT ARE WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INCREASE TO
MAKE STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE DISSIPATION BEGINS.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THE BEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM.  SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER IN THER PERIOD.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 15.3N 129.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 130.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN