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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED 07Z ERS
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE CENTER WAS SOUTHEAST OF THE 06Z
FIXES. BASED ON THE ERS DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
305/7. SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH APPEARS WELL-ANALYZED IN THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE TROUGH BY SUGGESTING
A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. EVEN THE SHALLOW
BAM MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BE NORTH OF 24N IN 72 HOURS...
WHICH IS SURPRISING SINCE THE AVIATION MODEL KEEPS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS TO THE LEFT
AND SLOWER THAN ALL OTHER NHC GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...AS THIS COULD HAPPEN IF SIX-E IS NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH.
 
THE STRONG CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THIS...AS THE
CYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND APPARENTLY IN LIGHT SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH SIX-E
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER
WATER. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE SYSTEM MAY NOT
STRENGTHEN AT ALL.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 15.3N 129.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.9N 130.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.8N 131.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.1N 132.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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