HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE
EXPOSED WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SOME 60 NMI
TO THE EAST.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 1.0/1.5/2.0 FROM
AFWA/TAFB/SAB.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS OR LESS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS INDICATED BY THE
GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET MODELS AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...BY THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 15.7N 130.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 135.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 137.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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