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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999
 
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT
FROM AFWA.  DEEP CONVECTION PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
DECREASING...SO DEPRESSION STATUS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH STORM STRENGTH WITHIN
24 HOURS AND HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS...A FORECAST THAT IS
SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE DEPRESSION
IMMEDIATELY ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT THIS FORECAST IS
QUESTIONABLE BASED ON A VERY POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NEAR 12N120W.  THE GFDL ALSO SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
110W-130W...AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N113W.  HOWEVER...THE LBAR...
BAMS...AND UKMET...THE LAST OF WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PROPERLY
INITIALIZE THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...ALL
SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  BASED ON THE SUPERIOR
UKMET INITIALIZATION THE NORTHWEST OPTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 13.1N 104.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.7N 106.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 108.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.9N 111.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N 113.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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